20+ methods and tools for predicting success

The first and crucial stage in project creation involves defining and forming:

• goals and objectives of the future project
• Competitive advantages and user expectations
• The exact budget and deadlines
• structure, priorities and vision.

An important detail!
Goals and tasks are often confused, but they are two different entities.

A goal is more high-level; it answers the question: “What effect is expected after successful implementation?”

For example:
The project's goal is to speed up the processing time of a client’s request and its launch into production.

A task is a more specific entity. There are many methodologies for setting tasks. We use SMART. In other words, a task must always be: specific, achievable, measurable, relevant (realistic), and time-bound.

For example:
By the end of the month, reduce the processing time for customer requests by 20% through the implementation of an order acceptance system and training 50% of operators.



There are also extended versions of the SMART methodology that add more parameters to a task. For instance:

• SMARTER
• SMARTTA
• SMARRT And others.

Each person chooses what suits their needs best.



Here is an example of one of the implemented projects:

Project Goal: Reduce the costs associated with servicing and managing company clients by creating an automated web system.

Project Tasks:

1. Speed up the process of adding a new company by 90%.
2. Eliminate the operator from the company's addition process.
3. Reduce the time required to process applications by 20%.
4. Eliminate the operator from the reporting generation process.
5. Implement recurring payments with companies.

and user expectations

If you’ve reached the automation stage, you already have a competitive advantage. There are several types of competitive advantages:

1. Technological;
2. Resource-based;
3. Market-related;
4. Innovative;
5. Cultural;
6. Managerial.

You might have one clear advantage or a little bit of everything.


To understand what's truly important, you need to use two key techniques:

• In-depth interviews with current customers;
• Competitive analysis.

We won’t go into detail about technologies since that's primarily a marketing function. Here are some main ones listed:

1. SWOT Analysis;
2. Porter’s Five Forces Analysis;
3. PEST Analysis;
4. Customer Development (CustDev);
5. From 4Ps to 7Ps.

previously, this looked like this for us: where red represents direct competitors, yellow represents direct competitors with additional services, green indicates segments outside our focus, and blue signifies potential partners.

Competitive advantages

In the development market, there is no such thing as an average price. The same project can vary by a factor of 10x both in cost and timeline.
This isn't due to greed on the part of the owner. Many processes are involved, which sometimes aren't valued properly. These include test environments, maintenance, project testing, team expertise, workload, training, and much more. Even the use of paid/free/in-house graphics with or without copyrights plays a role.

Often, businesses survey multiple studios and create a competitive list with an estimated range and key advantages.

However, it's essential for you to understand only two parameters:

1. Will the competing company complete the project?
2. Will the investment pay off?

For the first point, consider the following factors:

• Reviews;
• Work process structure;
• Relevant experience;
• Approach at initial stages;
• Promises vs. results;
• Ratings, portfolio, reputation.

The second parameter is more complex…
Consider the following data:

ROI = Investment / Expected monetary result * 100%
Oftentimes, ROI is calculated based solely on direct costs, overlooking indirect ones. For example, expenses related to employee training on updated processes, system integration, possible user attrition, etc.



To estimate projected timelines and costs, you can use the following methods:

1. Gaussian Bell Curve;
2. Poisson Distribution;
3. Top-down/bottom-up approach;
4. Game Theory Method;
5. Earned Value Management.

However, for most businesses, these approaches may seem overly complicated, so they usually find relevant teams and start the project instead. Alternatively, flexible project management methodologies are used. We'll discuss those later.

Determining the budget and deadlines

an example of estimating the range of labor costs by hour.

Depending on the planned format for managing the project, different formats of technical specifications are needed.

In the classic waterfall model, the technical specification serves as the primary document.
Businesses typically survey several studios and compile a competitive list with an estimated range and key advantages.

The technical specification (henceforth referred to as TS) should include:

• Goals and objectives;
• Design description and prototype;
• Project structure;
• Roles;
• Description of functional blocks;
• Special requirements;
• Security requirements;
• Cost and timeline;
• Acceptance criteria;
• Process description.

Half of these points are either insufficiently detailed or overly detailed. The other half can be interpreted ambiguously.


We recommend describing the major milestones of the project and breaking down tasks into sprints. However, even a preliminary TS is useful for all parties because it helps everyone understand the desired outcome.

Here are some tools that can help:

• Miro;
• Microsoft Project;
• Figma;
• MakeMyPersona;
• LucidChart;
• Camunda;
• Aiava;
• GanttPro;
• Trello;
• Asana;
• Google Docs;
• And numerous alternatives.

an example of a mindmap of one of the modules to demonstrate the structure

Preparation
of technical specifications

an example of a description of processes for automation

Above, we described the key stages that will allow you to form a clear and understandable result from launching automation.

All of this can/should be delegated. But we hope you've managed the task and now clearly understand the process of predicting outcomes.

Conclusion